Daily brief · 2026-10-12

The AI-power rally extended into nuclear — Talen +5.4%, Constellation +4.6% — as capex fears eased; the enrichment rung lagged, with Silex off 4.3%.

Talen Energy (TLN) led the nuclear basket on Friday, up 5.4% to $378.57, on the restarts-uprates-and-utilities chokepoint. There was no Talen-specific headline; the move was the datacenter-power complex extending its week-long rally as Thursday's AI-capex selloff reversed — a Bloomberg report that OpenAI expects $70bn-plus annualized revenue by year-end lifted the demand-side names that sell electrons to hyperscalers. The structural catalyst behind the group remains earlier in the week: Constellation's 20-year, roughly 890 MW power-purchase agreement with Google on the PJM grid, struck Oct 6, re-rated the whole merchant-nuclear-into-AI thesis. Constellation rose 4.6% to $298.07 and Vistra 3.4% to $161.48 in sympathy — only Constellation is a party to the Google contract, but the group trades on the PJM capacity-shortfall signal.

The laggard was Silex Systems' ADR (SILXY), down 4.3% to $14.12, on the enrichment-and-HALEU rung — a thin ADR line with no company news, moving on liquidity rather than fundamentals. enCore Energy (EU) fell 4.0% to $0.97 and NuScale (SMR) slipped 1.6% to $7.20, the only soft spots in an otherwise firm tape.

The rest of the basket was broadly green and led by the fuel-cycle front end. The uranium-supply-and-mining rung firmed: Denison Mines +3.0% to $2.43, Cameco +1.1% to $88.06, the Sprott uranium miners ETF (URNM) +0.9% to $46.50, and Centrus +0.2% to $142.44. The components and large-forgings rungs held up — BWX Technologies +1.1% to $143.83, Curtiss-Wright +1.0% to $512.60, Mirion +2.5% to $16.62, and Japan Steel Works' ADR (JPSWY) +3.0% to $22.50, the heavy-forging bottleneck for large reactor vessels. The advanced-reactor platforms were mixed: Oklo +0.4% to $34.70 and NANO Nuclear +0.5% to $15.34, against NuScale's decline.

The near-term calendar is lighter than the power tape suggests. BWX Technologies reports Q3 on Nov 2 — the clearest read on the naval-and-TRISO components rung — and NANO Nuclear posts its fiscal year-end update Nov 15. The policy milestones that gate the enrichment and restart rungs cluster at year-end: X-energy's Xe-100 construction-permit review hits an NRC milestone around Dec 16, and the definitive Westinghouse/US-government agreements that replace the binding term sheet are expected by Dec 31. Constellation's NRC decision on the Crane Clean Energy Center restart — the Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactivation underpinning its Microsoft deal — is expected in 2027.

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